Macbeth Blog - Santa Ynez Valley Real Estate

Enclosed is the update of activity for July, 2012 thru September, 2012.  There were a total of  94 new listings.  There were 59 pending sales.  Of the residential sales there were 37 sales between $250,000 and $600,000, 15 sales between $601,000 and $999,999, 3 sale over $1,000,000 and 4 land sales.  There were 84 sale completes.  Their were 81 price decreases and no price increases.  The number of current listings are down at 268 listings specific to the Santa Ynez Valley.

Rates continue to fluctuate on a daily basis.  Conforming 30 year fixed rates up to $417,000 are at 3.50% at no points and Jumbo Conforming Loans which are loans up to $626,500 are at 3.635% at no points and Super Jumbo Loans which are loans up to $1,000,000 are at 4.375% at no points for origination. The Jumbo 30/5 year ARM Interest Only is at 3.125% at no points.  The 11th District Cost of Funds index (COFI) is down at 1.069 for the month of October.  The 6 month LIBOR rate is at 0.65; last month it was at 0.71; 12 months ago it was at 0.55.

The real estate market is continuing to show signs of life and this is a good thing The under 1 million dollar price range is moving well; the under $500,000 market has almost stopped but not because there are no buyer but because there are very FEW listings.  Where are prices???? Well in the lower end we are moving back in the range of 2003.  Marlene and I think the true bottom ( in hindsight) was the 4th quarter of 2011.  We had a bit of a slingshot effect at the end as we made a final dive into 2002 but we haven't remained there long and things are looking up.  Sales in the over 1 million range have also seen activity.  There have been multiple sales as sellers are realistically accepting offers from buyers who are feeling we are working our way out of a deep hole. i see good things for buyers and sellers alike.  There are LOTS of great buys out there and the home of your dreams may be just around the corner.

Its been a busy summer and early fall for the Macbeths and we are going to squeeze in a little R and R this next few weeks.  Sometimes a change of scenery invigorates us all.  Hope to see you all at Los Olivos Day in the Country and all the other great fun activities the Valley has to offer.  I have quite a few good looking trick or treaters at my house and we are going to do the town in our Darth Vader and Princess Costumes.

Be sure and check out our Website and Property Search engines.  You can still find everything available throughout the County and as far North as Paso Robles at www.MacbethRealEstate.com. Looking for Short Sales, Auctions, REO's we have access to those too through RealtyTrac and Foreclosure Radar. Have a Short Sale, facing foreclosure, call us for information.  At the very least we can provide you with the knowledge to make an informed decision.   Just give us a call and let us know what you need. We may be reached during the day at our office 805-688-2969, and in the evening at 805-688-2986.  Our toll-free number is 1-800-300-7977.  My cell phone is 805-689-4178 and Marlene's is 805-689-2738.  So whether you need to buy or sell, call us. We would like to show you what we can do!  In the meantime we thank you again for your loyalty and support in seeking us out when looking at properties in the Valley and for choosing in 2012  to get your information about the Santa Ynez Valley  and other areas on the beautiful Central Coast from.........

Your Real Estate Professionals
Providing Old-Fashioned Service Using Today's Technology
David and Marlene Macbeth, CDPE, CIAS, e-PRO, GRI

Enclosed is the update of activity for February, 2012 thru March 2012.  There were a total of  76 new listings.  There were 47 pending sales.  Of the residential sales there were 29 sales between $250,000 and $600,000, 8 sales between $601,000 and $999,999, 5 sale over $1,000,000, 1 commercial sale and 2 land sales.  There were 34 sale completes.  Their were 49 price decreases and 2 price increases.  The number of current listings are up at 289 listings specific to the Santa Ynez Valley.

Rates continue to fluctuate on a daily basis.  Conforming 30 year fixed rates up to $417,000 are at 3.875% at no points and Jumbo Conforming Loans which are loans up to $626,500 are at 4.0% at no points and Super Jumbo Loans which are loans up to $1,000,000 are at 4.625% at no points for origination. The Jumbo 30/5 year ARM Interest Only is at 3.125% at no points.  The 11th District Cost of Funds index (COFI) is down at 1.206 for the month of April.  The 6 month LIBOR rate is at 0.74; last month it was at 0.74; 12 months ago it was at 0.43.

The latest round of Santa Barbara Economic Forecasts are starting to come out.  They  are somewhat rosier than the recent previous years but not a cause for handsprings as yet. Fortunately Santa Barbara County is a unique place where national and state forecasts do not have an much applicability.  We have some tried and true linchpins of agriculture, education, defense, technology and tourism.  For the Valley itself we can be thankful for several of those areas includingthe wine industry which brings tourists and also provides jobs and  the Chumash Casino and Resort  which infuses consistent dollars into the economy and the pockets of its employees and tribal members, all of which help keep the local economy afloat.

The sale of properties in the price range under $600,000 has really picked up and inventory in this range is dropping.  The banks are still predicting a round of short sales but I think Santa Barbara County and the Santa Ynez Valley is looking stable at this time.  That is not to mean that the upper end of price ranges over  1 million will still not see a glut of more than can be sold in a reasonable period of time. And the price of those sales really needs to be determined by what has sold in the last 6 months  and not by what was in 2005; getting back to 2005 is going to take much longer than the 6 years it took for values to fall.  It will be interesting to see if the cost of  proper maintenance, repair and updating of the homes of those sellers who are going to hold out for the return of values to 2005 levels will  equate to the rise in prices of the future.  A crystal ball providing the "right answers" would be a great tool.  The buyers are definitely out there now looking even in all price ranges but they are looking for "THE DEAL" and generally they are willing to wait until they find it.

Are we in a Buyer or Seller's Market?  I think we are in both; we bounce between the two on a daily basis; lower end inventory is  down which makes properties under $450,000 few and far between but the upper end although showing some sign of life is still struggling.In either case there is still plenty of inventory to look at,  There are "the deals"  the buyers but if you are a Seller and want to sell, to move up, move away, get out from under, there is opportunities to get that done.   In any case, talking to your realtor and an accountant or lawyer well versed in short sale, foreclosure and bankruptcy and most importantly, the local market  is very important.   Marlene  and I are well versed and educated in all these issues and if we don't know the answers at the very least we can point you in the right direction.  Being proactive will put you and our economy on the right track and in the right spot.

Be sure and check out our Website and Property Search engines.  The Lompoc MLS and CCRMLS have merged and now all North County properties are under the same Search MLS; only Santa Barbara remains it's own entity  for searching out properties. You can still find everything available throughout the County and as far North as Paso Robles at www.MacbethRealEstate.com. Looking for Short Sales, Auctions, REO's we have access to those too through RealtyTrac and Foreclosure Radar. Have a Short Sale, facing foreclosure, call us for information.  At the very least we can provide you with the knowledge to make an informed decision.   Just give us a call and let us know what you need. We may be reached during the day at our office 805-688-2969, and in the evening at 805-688-2986.  Our toll-free number is 1-800-300-7977.  My cell phone is 805-689-4178 and Marlene's is 805-689-2738.  So whether you need to buy or sell, call us. We would like to show you what we can do!  In the meantime we thank you again for your loyalty and support in seeking us out when looking at properties in the Valley and for choosing in 2011 and for the future  to get your information about the Santa Ynez Valley  and other areas on the beautiful Central Coast from.........

David and Marlene Macbeth, CDPE, CIAS, e-PRO, GRI
Your Real Estate Professionals
Providing Old-Fashioned Service Using Today's Technology

Enclosed is the update of 4 months of activity for August 1, 2011 through November 30, 2011. .  There were a total of  109  new listings.  There were 24 pending sales.  Of the residential sales there were 20  sales between $250,000 and $600,000, 1 sales between $601,000 and $999,999, 3 sales over $1,000,000,  and no land sale.  There were 78 sale completes.  Their were 91 price decreases and no price increases.  The number of current listings are down; however they are still very high at 268  listings specific to the Santa Ynez Valley.

Rates continue to fluctuate on a daily basis.  Conforming 30 year fixed rates up to $417,000 are at 3.875% at no points and Jumbo Conforming Loans which are loans up to $626,500 are at 4.125% at no points and Super Jumbo Loans which are loans up to $1,000,000 are at 4.625% at no points for origination. The Jumbo 30/5 year ARM Interest Only is at 3.625% at no points.  The 11th District Cost of Funds index (COFI) is down at 1.218 for the month of December.  The 6 month LIBOR rate is at 0.80; last month it was at 0.71; 12 months ago it was at 0.48.

I am going to do the End of the Year Update with this letter since we are still struggling to get this Update back on schedule. We have worked harder mostly due to the Short Sale Market which requires not only knowledge and professionalism but boundless energy, perseverance beyond question and unbelievable tenacity.  I guess we are just hard headed and stubborn enough not to let the banks win and eventually we run into someone at the bank who does understand reality  and we close the deal.  It just takes an incredible amount of time. Marlene and I are thankful everyday for each other as it takes two to get it all done.   The results of the year are a mixed bag.  There are buyer's out their with loads of confidence in the market, many of them investors or buyers looking for 2nd homes. They think the prices are great; interest rates are phenomenal and we are close to if not at the bottom of the under the $800,000 range of homes.  I would say in the under $400,000 range, homes are flying off the shelf with multiple offers. That does not mean they are selling at astronomical prices but market forces are preventing them from slipping further, at least for the 4th quarter of 2011.  There was still about .5% erosion per month in values for at least the first 3 quarters of 2011 but I think stability in the 4th quarter.  That is an improvement over 2010 where we saw declines from .75% to 1% per month.  So I have high hopes for 2012.  If you have not received an accurate analysis of where your house is valued in the 4th quarter of 2011 - now is the time to do that because...."God willing and the Creek doesn't rise" that will determine your property value in 2012 and the base for future years and maybe even some increase over the long term..  The hard reality is that number is somewhere between 40-60% off the peak value in 2005 and has driven us back to the property values of 2001. And there is no area of value that is untouched by this.  It does not matter if your property was valued under 1 million or over 10+ million.  We have all taken the hit.  The reason for the variation from 40-60% is determine by the level of maintenance your house has received.  If you are in pristine condition - you are down 40%; if you have deferred maintenance and your property is not staged for showing, you are down 60%. 

That being said, it may be your time to do something or ask the question.  Be sure and check out our Website and Property Search engines.  We have access to all three Santa Barbara County Multiple Listing Services and you can find everything available throughout the County and as far North as Paso Robles at www.MacbethRealEstate.com .  Looking for Short Sales, Auctions, REO's we have access to those too through RealtyTrac and Foreclosure Radar. Have a Short Sale, facing foreclosure, call us for information.  At the very least we can rpovide you with the knowledge to make an informed decision.   Just give us a call and let us know what you need. We may be reached during the day at our office 805-688-2969, and in the evening at 805-688-2986.  Our toll-free number is 1-800-300-7977.  My cell phone is 805-689-4178 and Marlene's is 805-689-2738.  So whether you need to buy or sell, call us. We would like to show you what we can do!  In the meantime we thank you again for your loyalty and support in seeking us out when looking at properties in the Valley and for choosing in 2011 and for the future  to get your information about the Santa Ynez Valley  and other areas on the beautiful Central Coast from......... 

Your Real Estate Professionals

David and Marlene Macbeth

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Property information

Enclosed is the update of 2 months of activity for February 1, 2011 through March 31, 2011, click here to view the updates..  There were a total of  84  new listings.  There were 35 pending sales.  Of the residential sales there were 23 sales between $199,000 and $600,000, 4 sales between $601,000 and $999,999, 4 sales over $1,000,000, 3 commercial property sales and no land sales.  There were 44 sale completes.  Their were 48 price decreases and no price increases.  The number of current listings are down slightly; however they are still very high at 284 listings specific to the Santa Ynez Valley.

Rates continue to fluctuate on a daily basis.  Conforming 30 year fixed rates up to $417,000 are at 5.0% at no points and Jumbo Conforming Loans which are loans up to $729,750 are at 5.125% at no points and Super Jumbo Loans are at 5.375% at .875 points for origination. The jumbo 5/1year ARM fully amortized is at 3.75% at 1 points, the Jumbo 5/1 year ARM Interest Only is at 4.125% at .875 point.  The 11th District Cost of Funds index (COFI) is down at 1.469 for the month of April.  The 6 month LIBOR rate is at 0.46; last month it was at 0.46; 12 months ago it was at 0.45.

It's April  and already I am thinking I have a great case of Spring Fever.  It still unusually nippy out in the mornings but that doesn't seem to have affected the wildflowers on Figueroa Mountain or the hills full of mustard. Now all we need is some warm and windless spring days.

Now for the real estate market.  The very lower end of the market is continuing to hold; the number of new short sales, foreclosures and non-distress sales popping up on the market seem to find buyers, especially if your price range is under $600,000.  The strongest swell of buyers is in the $250,000 to $499,000 range and those properties move into the pending status quickly. However,  there have also been a few big deals - some not even reported in the MLS.

There are also a few new wrinkles appearing on the Federal Level - whether they get anywhere with them still remains to be seen.  "Qualified Residential Mortgage or QRM is a new term coined by Congress; their intent was to devise a standard that would incorporate the key features statistically associated with on-time payments of home loans. Considering the mortgage mess of the past few years, this is probably a good thing.  The law suggested such features as:

• Full documentation of borrower income and assets.
• Rigorous underwriting standards to ensure the borrower has the capacity to repay the debt.
• Avoidance of loan structures that increase the probability of default, such as balloon payments and negative amortization.
• Mortgage insurance and other credit enhancements.

The result by regulators is a highly restrictive QRM with a mandatory 20 percent down payment for home purchases, 30 percent minimum equity for refinancings, and mandatory debt-to-income ceilings of 28 percent (housing expenses) and 36 percent (total household monthly debt load).   The implementation of something this restrictive  would surely slow the housing recovery even more. What are they thinking???  Fortunately, the QRM is still a proposal open for public comment through June 10.

To end on a somewhat higher note, it really is the time to buy. The slow down in construction has decreased the number of available housing units that are vacant or under construction in most metropolitan areas and we are soon going to find ourselves without anything to sell; Even in our "small Santa Ynez Valley metropolis" our investory is down under 290 - hasnt' been there for a long time.  Investors are hitting the market in droves in the North County and purchasing lots of real estate because the cash flow on rental properties is starting to look very good. Is this a sign of spring or a sign of the times???  Only time will tell.

Be sure and check out our Website and Property Search engines.  We have access to all three Santa Barbara County Multiple Listing Services and you can find everything available throughout the County and as far North as Paso Robles in www.MacbethRealEstate.com.  Looking for Short Sales, Auctions, REO's we have access to those too through RealtyTrac and Foreclosure Radar.  Just give us a call and let us what you need. We may be reached during the day at our office 805-688-2969, and in the evening at 805-688-2986.  Our toll-free number is 1-800-300-7977.  My cell phone is 805-689-4178 and Marlene's is 805-689-2738.  So whether you need to buy or sell, call us. We would like to show you what we can do!  In the meantime we thank you again for your loyalty and support in seeking us out when looking at properties in the Valley and for choosing in 2010 to get your information about the Santa Ynez Valley  and other areas on the beautiful Central Coast from.........

Your Real Estate Professionals
Providing Old-Fashioned Service Using Today's Technology

David Macbeth and Marlene Macbeth

Enclosed is the update of activity for November 1, 2010 through November 30, 2010, click here to view the updates.  There were a total of  32  new listings.  There were 16 pending sales.  Of the residential sales there were 10 sales between $199,000 and $600,000, 1 sales between $601,000 and $999,999, 4 sales over $1,000,000 and 1 land sale.  There were 15 sale completes.  Their were 30 price decreases and 1 price increase.  The number of current listings remain the same; however they are still very high at 300 listings specific to the Santa Ynez Valley.

Rates continue to fluctuate on a daily basis.  Conforming 30 year fixed rates up to $417,000 are at 4.75% at 1 point and Jumbo Conforming Loans which are loans up to $729,750 are at 4.875% at 1 point and Super Jumbo Loans are at 5.125% at 1 points for origination. The conforming 5 year ARM Interest Only is at 2.875% at 1 points, the Jumbo 5 year ARM Interest Only is at 4.875% at 1 point.  The 11th District Cost of Funds index (COFI) is down at 1.654 for the month of November.  The 6 month LIBOR rate is at 0.46; last month it was at 0.45; 12 months ago it was at 0.47.

Rates continue to be amazing, even with the edging up. However, the lending landscape has changed quite drastically over the past several years and everyday I learn something new. FHA loans and Mortgage Insurance requirements have changed significantly.  The previous annual premium a borrower paid was up to 2.25% of the loan amount; the monthly premium was .55%.  The monthly premium is now reduced to 1% of the loan amount but .9% of the  loan amount for monthly payments. The annual premium is usually added to the loan amount and is amortized but the monthly premiums are due every month included in the payment and determine a buyer's ability to qualify. On a $500,000 loan that adds $5000 to the loan amount instead of $11,250; that's a good thing. But on a monthly basis for each $100,000 loan amount, the buyer contributes $75.00 for mortgage insurance premium; that makes the monthly mortgage insurance payment $375.00 for a $500,000 loan and a hefty sum for any wallet.

The economic outlook for 2011 is looking better for the South Coast which should mean good things for us in the Santa Ynez Valley.  My prediction and hope is that our real estate values hold a steady course and employment and new job starts will be better in 2011. My hope for us all is that we can recover, albeit slowly and move toward a stronger and healthier self,  a happier and more peaceful world, and a little more personal time for us to reflect and appreciate all that we have. Better stop now before I get too mushy. To all of our friends and clients have a wonderful holiday with your families and a great New Year.

Be sure and check out our Website and Property Search engines.  We have added Lompoc area properties to the Search through their MLS and you can find everything available throughout the County.  Looking for Short Sales and REO's. Just indicate that on the bottom field of the form and you will get the most up-to-date list available. We may be reached during the day at our office 805-688-2969, and in the evening at 805-688-2986.  Our toll-free number is 1-800-300-7977.  My cell phone is 805-689-4178 and Marlene's is 805-689-2738.  So whether you need to buy or sell, call us. We would like to show you what we can do!  In the meantime we thank you again for your loyalty and support in seeking us out when looking at properties in the Valley and for choosing in 2010 to get your information about the Santa Ynez Valley  and other areas on the beautiful Central Coast from.........

Your Real Estate Professionals Providing
Old-Fashioned Service Using Today's Technology

 David Macbeth and Marlene Macbeth

Enclosed is the update ofactivity for August 1, 2010 through August 31, 2010, click here to view the updates.  There were a total of 37  new listings.  There were 16 pending sales.  Of the residential sales there were 13sales between $199,000 and $600,000, 2 sales between $601,000 and $999,999, nosales over $1,000,000 and 1 land sale. There were 24 sale completes. Their were 54 price decreases and no price increases.  The number of current listings are upslightly; however they are still very high at 341 listings specific to the SantaYnez Valley.

Rates continue to fluctuateon a daily basis.  Conforming 30year fixed rates up to $417,000 are at 4.125% at 1 point and Jumbo ConformingLoans which are loans up to $729,750 are at 4.25% at .875 point and Super JumboLoans are at 4.875% at .5 points for origination. The conforming 5 year ARMInterest Only is at 2.75% at .75 points, the Jumbo 5 year ARM Interest Only isat 4.125% at 1 point.  The 11thDistrict Cost of Funds index (COFI) is down at 1.753 for the month ofSeptember.  The 6 month LIBOR rateis at 0.47; last month it was at 0.52; 12 months ago it was at 0.67.

The market is hot - lots ofbuyers out there but the weather is hotter.  This past Sunday at 107 degrees and counting there werebuyers looking at open houses. That really says something. Dave and I were only prepared forair-conditioned open houses or at least great window coverings to keep out theblazing sun. Our summer was a little on the cool side this year by the accountsof us "Old Timers" and by that I mean long-time residents. However,the last week has been amazing---the entire county is breaking hot temperaturerecords. It should make the grape harvest--all that much sweeter.  We have also had our gardener friendsreporting the tomato crop has not been as sweet.  Fortunately I am still bringing in my harvest...I am up to 1tomato and 3 green peppers  whichon a cost basis has not been the most profitable thing I have done recently. Mycareer as a farmer is definitely not as successful as I had hoped. I think I betterstick to real estate sales---at least there I know what I am doing.

Credit Scores.... a subjectof great concern of late.  A fewpoints here or there makes a difference so we need to all keep tabs on whereour individual scores are situated. For potential these were some of the options:

• For scores between 620 and 639 the best average annual percentagerate offered was 4.9 percent.
• For scores between 640 and 659, the rate was 4.73 percent.
• For scores between 660 and 679, the rate was 4.6 percent.
• For scores between 680 and 699, the rate was 4.56 percent.
• For scores between 700 and 719, the rate was 4.44 percent.
• For scores of 720 and above, the rate was 4.3 percent.

That means that for each20-point score increase, the average rate dropped 0.12 percent. On a $300,000home with a 20-percent down payment, a 0.12 percent decline equals about $6,400saved over the course of a 30-year mortgage. If you are trying to buy a house,here is another way to evaluate your options.

Be sure and check out our Websiteand Property Search engines.  Wehave added Lompoc area properties to the Search through their MLS and you canfind everything available throughout the County.  Looking for Short Sales and REO's. Just indicate that on thebottom field of the form and you will get the most up-to-date list available.We may be reached during the day at our office 805-688-2969, and in the eveningat 805-688-2986.  Our toll-freenumber is 1-800-300-7977.  My cellphone is 805-689-4178 and Marlene's is 805-689-2738.  So whether you need to buy or sell, call us. We would liketo show you what we can do!  In themeantime we thank you again for your loyalty and support in seeking us out whenlooking at properties in the Valley and for choosing in 2010 to get yourinformation about the Santa Ynez Valley and other areas on the beautiful Central Coast from.........

Your Real EstateProfessionals Providing
Old-Fashioned Service UsingToday's Technology

David Macbeth and Marlene Macbeth