Enclosed is
the update of activity for July 1, 2009 through July 31, 2009,
click here to view the updates. There were a total of 32 new listings. There were 20 pending sales. Of the residential sales there were 14
sales between $200,000 and $600,000, 4 sales between $601,000 and $999,999 and
no sales between $1,000,000 and $1,999,999, 1 sale between $4,000,000 and
$4,999,999 and 1land sale. There
were 27 sale completes. Their were
44 price decreases and no price increases. The number of current listings are down slightly; however they
are still very high at 350 listings specific to the Santa Ynez Valley.
Rates
continue to go up and down on a daily basis. We are checking daily with lenders and trying to make sure our buyer have their loans
locked in and for a long enough period of time if they are dealing with the
purchase of a short sale.
Conforming 30 year fixed rates up to $417,000 are at 4.875% at 1 point
and Jumbo Conforming Loans which are loans up to $729,750 are at 5.0% at 1 point
and Super Jumbo Loans are at 5.50% at 1 point for origination. The conforming 5
year ARM Interest Only is at 3.375% at 1 point, the Jumbo 5 year ARM Interest
Only is at 4.10% at 1 point. The
11th District Cost of Funds index (COFI) is up at 1.599 for the month of
July. We are adding the 6 month LIBOR
index to our update letter as it is becoming the standard for many Adjustable
Rate Mortgages. The 6 month LIBOR rate is at 0.94; last month it was at 1.11;
12 months ago it was at 3.12.
I am just
only to say a few words about where the market is today from where it was in
August 2005. We are at the 4 year mark. During the first 12-18 months I think
most of us, realtors and homeowners alike, were in the"shell shock"
mode. What is happening??? Properties are on the market and not
selling. As we all started coming to our senses, reality began hitting and we
could see we were in for a roller coaster ride downhill....a complete
"free fall" looking for the "sweet spot"of stability. A
local appraiser has calculated that market values have been going down approximately
1.3% monthly for the past 29 months.
I am sure there is a great mathematician out there who could calculate
the true drop in the market but I am more a simple mathematician so I am going
to call it a drop of approximately 30-40% from the peak. Yikes!!!! But don't panic. There are
other areas that are far worse; and there are even some pockets in the valley
that have been worse than others. So where are we now. I truly believe the lower end of the
market has hit bottom. Inventory continues to decrease and with lack of supply
comes demand........stability. Even the condominium market has started to come
into its own and has started to stabilize at about 35-40% of peak value. The
area that seems to still need a correction is probably the market from $900,000
to $3,000,000+. I used to think
the upper end of the stratosphere was immune here but even here we are seeing
some adjustments, not to the extent of the lower end but an adjustment never
the less.
There are
some good things that have happened.
People are started to save more, the savings rate is up around 6% and it
was about 1-2%. We are learning our properties...the shelter over our heads are
not a bank accounts to draw from but rather a savings account where we can
accumulate wealth...slow and steady like the tortoise, one mortgage payment at
a time. For those who have had a
rough time in the past 48 months, there is light at the end of the tunnel and you can recover. The one
lesson I think we have all learned is not to take anything for granted which
brings me to my last point. If you
are a grandparent, parent, daughter, son, daughter-in-law, son-in-law, wife,
husband, ex-wife, ex-husband, aunt, uncle, cousin, etc trying to do your best,
the other half of your equation is probably trying to do their best too. Give
them a break, it all can change in an instant and just maybe it wasn't all that
bad. Carpe Diem Oige... what a
great lesson you have given us and how lucky we were to have had you spend time
in our world.
We may be
reached during the day at our office 805-688-2969, and in the evening at
805-688-2986. Our toll-free number
is 1-800-300-7977. My cell phone
is 805-689-4178 and Marlene's is 805-689-2738. So whether you need to buy or sell, call us. We would like
to show you what we can do! In the
meantime we thank you again for your loyalty and support in seeking us out when
looking at properties in the valley and for choosing in 2009 to get your
information about Santa Ynez Valley real estate from................
Your Real Estate Professionals Providing
Old-Fashioned Service Using Today's Technology
David Macbeth and Marlene Macbeth
e-PRO, GRI
Realtors
Prudential California Realty.